Stardate 20031130.0842

(On Screen): Someone at the BBC really didn't want to write this story. It's about the US economy.

What I think that deep down nearly everyone knows is that US economic performance is the key factor in next year's election. If the economy rebounds strongly by next summer, Bush is unbeatable. If the economy "double-dips", then a "regime change" in Washington becomes plausible. And, of course, all right-thinking (i.e. "left-thinking") Europeans know how vital that regime change is, right? (er, "Left?")

So they're rooting for the US economy to stay bad so that the Democrats will have a chance. However, all signs now say that the US is in the early stages of a recovery which will almost certainly be robust and widespread well before the election, dooming the world to four more years of George Bush.

The latest sign is the early reports from retailers on Christmas sales. They're way up. And the BBC reluctantly says as much.

But large amounts of space in the article are dedicated to demurrers on why it may not really be a sign of the apocalypse after all, and why it's still too early to lose all hope. It's quite a list:

It is still not clear whether Wal-Mart's performance will be matched across the board.

Nor will a rush on Friday necessarily be matched throughout the weekend: anecdotal evidence suggests that Saturday was a significantly slower day.

And throngs of shoppers in the malls may not translate into dollars in the tills: many were drawn by the numerous discounts on offer this year.

... Some economists are, however, concerned over a couple of aspects of the US recovery.

First, there is still little sign that enough jobs are being created to return to genuine broad-based prosperity.

And second, some worry that the government is putting too much of its own money into the economy, leading to possible budgetary problems in the future.

So if we just keep the faith, maybe it will all turn out OK. There's still hope that the US economy won't recover and we'll be able to get rid of that horrible man after all.

They hate this. They hate it. They grudgingly admit that the Bush administration itself is partly responsible for the recovery: There is an increasing consensus that recovery is now solidly established, at least partly thanks to a heavy fiscal push from the government.

Can you say "tax cuts"? Apparently the BBC can't. No spikka the English...