Stardate 20030204.1524

(On Screen): The impression seems to be that the French intend to "reluctantly" change their mind and support the war after they hear what Powell has to say in the UN tomorrow. Then they'll be greeted warmly by us, and welcomed back with a great sigh of relief (by us) because of course we can't actually do anything without French participation. France is just too important, and of course it was always the case that we needed their consent and their help. We just aren't capable of managing anything without them.

They're even sending their carrier.

That entire idea is a combination of arrogance, contempt and delusion. People like me have been saying for a long time now that France is not an ally in any meaningful sense of the term, but what we say has no diplomatic significance.

What Richard Perle says, on the other hand, does. And if you thought that there was harumphing when Rumsfeld called France and Germany "Old Europe", wait until you see how they respond to Perle saying that France isn't an ally and that NATO needs to be changed to limit French influence.

He condemned Germany, too, but he blamed that on Schröder and said that once Schröder is gone that Germany will come back around. But he was not charitable to France and seems to make clear that French anti-Americanism is not an aberration and cannot be ignored.

Perle doesn't speak for the government, but his influence cannot be denied, and if he's willing to say something this blunt about France, it strongly suggests that the French plan to have it both ways ain't gonna fly with the Bush administration. France may change sides, but we won't greet them with open arms and big relieved grins.

TotalFina can kiss its sweetheart deals with Iraq goodbye; after the war they're going to be wastepaper. And I bet that we don't see any news articles saying that the De Gaulle is going through the Suez Canal. I have a sneaking suspicion that the French have been told very clearly that it is not welcome in the war zone.