Stardate 20030206.1600

(On Screen): I've been asked for my opinion of the threat posed by development of Iraqi UAVs, where they are configuring light aircraft for remote control. My opinion is that any threat is a real one and can't be ignored, but as such things go these are well down on the scale.

Jon compares these to the V2, which was a ballistic missile. What I suspect he's thinking of is the V1, the "buzz bomb", which was a cruise missile. The V1 had an extremely crude guidance system; it would fly at a preprogrammed height in a certain compass direction for a predetermined time. Then the engine would cut out, and the V1 would dive into the ground and detonate.

Once the threat had been recognized, the V1 ended up being more of an annoyance than a mortal threat. Since they flew straight, at a constant speed and altitude, they were relatively easy to pick off with antiaircraft guns. They were also fairly easy for fighters to shoot down. Some got through; most didn't. And that was with 1944 technology.

The value of a modern cruise missile is directly proportional to the sophistication of its guidance system. The Tomahawk is a massive threat because it has very good electronics. That means it can fly "nape of the earth" flying up over hills and back down into valleys again. That makes it hard to detect, and means that ground defenses only get a very brief look at it even if they know it's coming. And its terminal guidance system is scarily accurate; one report is that it has a CEP of 3 meters.

But doing that is really tough, and there's no way the Iraqis have managed to cobble together such a system. Their UAVs will have to fly relatively high, which means they'll be visible by radar from a long way away. Like all cruise missiles they won't dodge attempts to shoot them down; which makes them easy meat for fighters if need be. And though this amounts to a cruise missile, its physical configuration is more like a light plane, which makes it a big target. And from the description, if they have a CEP of 200 meters I'd be surprised.

Indeed, what this reminds me of most is the target drones that our antiaircraft troops practice on.

The danger, of course, is that it might be carrying something really deadly, like bioweapons or a nuke. It's not something we can ignore. But this is not exactly a show stopper, either. Our air and ground forces are trained and equipped to defend against massive attacks by enemy jets with human pilots; a few of these things are much easier to deal with.

As a political point for Powell to make, it was a good one. Iraq isn't supposed to be producing things like this. For use against undefended civilian targets, they could be devastating. Against a prepared military force, I don't think it's significant.