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Stardate
20030117.1208 (Captain's log): In response to my speculation about when Bush will finally start the war, a lot of people have been writing to point out the way that a lot of things all come together at the end of January.
January 27 is the UN inspection report.
January 28 is the Israeli election, and the State of the Union address.
Tony Blair is due to visit Bush on the 30th and 31st.
February 1 is the new moon, which is the best possible time for the initial air strikes by stealth aircraft intended to knock out what remains of Iraq's air defenses.
So my hunch now is that Bush will set up for the attack in the SOTU address, by making allegations of Iraqi "material breach" which will then be substantiated by information released by the government on the 29th and 30th which will be very shocking, and then Bush and Blair will make a joint speech, probably on the 31st, announcing the beginning of hostilities.
Update: Dan Rector points out a report where Colin Powell says, "We believe a persuasive case will be there at the end of the month that Iraq is not cooperating." I think so, too, because I think it's going to come from the US. The government is going to release a lot of information not only about Iraq's WMDs, but also about their involvement in terrorism and the Iraqi government's brutality to its own people. This is part and parcel of Bush's way of letting his critics hang themselves, because one of their strongest rhetorical arguments until now has been, "Where's the evidence?"
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