Stardate 20021116.1815

(On Screen): The purported interview with a "senior member of al Qaeda" printed in Asia Times a couple of days ago may have turned out to be a hoax (and the Asia Times published a retraction the next day and admitted their gullibility) but it also represented an object lesson in interpretation of threats, and claims by al Qaeda.

Whether that particular report was right or wrong, it's likely that someone associated with al Qaeda will actually make threats against us in future. There's one today which may be genuine (or may not be):

Yosri Fouda, correspondent for the satellite station Al-Jazeera, told The Associated Press he received the six-page document on Wednesday. That was a day after the TV station broadcast an audiotape purportedly made by Osama bin Laden.

Fouda, who is known for good contacts within al-Qaida, would only say that the statement came from his sources with the group. But he insisted he was certain it came from the terrorist movement's leadership.

Fouda, speaking by telephone from London, said the statement called on Americans to stop supporting Israel and other governments that "oppress" Muslims or face more attacks. The statement also called on Americans to convert to Islam, he said.

Fouda quoted the statement as saying: "Stop your support for Israel against the Palestinians, for Russians against the Chechens ... for corrupt leaders in our countries ... (and) leave us alone or expect us in Washington and New York."

He added the statement demanded U.S. troops leave the Arabian Peninsula, and justified the killings of American civilians because they pay taxes that finance military operations.

First, anyone who thinks we're going to get out of this war without further attacks against the US is hopelessly optimistic. We are unquestionably going to lose more civilians in this war, and we might well lose a lot of them. We'll hope that there are as few as possible but there are no guarantees in war, about this or anything else.

That said, this threat from al Qaeda betrays the same illogic as the one from Thursday: does anyone actually believe that al Qaeda intends to utilize less than its maximum capability against us no matter what we do?

Their threats may not be empty. But their demands are, for a conversion by the US to Islam is out of the question and nothing less will appease them. We gain nothing by giving in, if that were even conceivable.

And in a sense receiving threats like this is reassuring, as odd as that may seem. If they were actually prepared to make significant attacks on us, they'd let their violence speak for them. If they're not shooting, it's because they have no ammunition, and using are threats to cover up weakness.