Stardate 20021129.1447

(On Screen via long range sensors): While we're on the subject of non-barking dogs, another one is the virtual absence of major operations by al Qaeda over the last year. Where have they been?

One nutcase in the Washington DC area managed to terrorize the entire city through sniper attacks which killed and wounded a dozen people, one per day. It turns out he was sympathetic to the al Qaeda cause, but there's no indication that his attacks were actually planned by, or inspired by al Qaeda. What he showed, however, was what even one dedicated person who hated America could accomplish. Why hasn't al Qaeda itself launched such attacks? They can't even find one guy who knows how to use a rifle and send him here to start killing people?

This article in the London Times says that the attack by al Qaeda in Kenya demonstrates that the organization is on the ropes. I think they're right. For all their public pronouncements about upcoming campaigns, and how strong they are and how many people they have around the world and how they'll erupt with new attacks Real Soon Now, the evidence seems to be that the organization has been deeply crippled, and that all the bluster has primarily been aimed at keeping the people they have from losing heart, and at attempting to recruit new members in the face of institutional disaster.

The attack in Bali was extremely deadly, and the Australians bore the brunt of it. But the attack happened in Bali because security there was soft and it seems to be one of the few places where al Qaeda-affiliated groups could still operate even a little (what with the government there turning a blind eye). Equally, there was an attack in Kenya because it was one of the few places they seem to have the ability to make attacks.

And though it sounds callous to say so, this attack was pretty feeble, causing only a small amount of damage and killing a small number of people.

Only a fool would write them off completely, but it's becoming clear that the threat from al Qaeda has been substantially reduced. It's virtually certain that this is not only a result of our operation in Afghanistan, but also a victory in the shadow war, and those fighting it are entitled to a great deal of satisfaction for a job well done.