Stardate 20020328.1632

(On Screen): It appears that Saudi Arabia's government is cozying up to Iraq. This article describes this as a "setback" to US efforts.

It isn't, actually. In a sense it is a good thing. First, it simplifies the diplomatic situation. One of the problems was that Saudi Arabia was trying to sit on the fence; now they've picked sides relatively unambiguously. That makes it much more straightforward.

Second, they've sided with our enemy. That makes it easier for us in the long run, because before this is over we are going to have to force a "regime change" (nice term, that) in Saudi Arabia and that would have been a lot harder if the regime there had been pretending to be our friends the whole time.

Militarily, in terms of a potential assault on Iraq, this has negligible effect. I don't think that the US was ever counting on Saudi support or on the use of bases in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia doesn't have any important ability to lend military aid to Iraq. This is, therefore, far less important than what Kuwait does, since I think we are hoping to begin the attack from Kuwaiti territory.

This also will not play well on the "American Street"; they're now cozying up with a regime that three quarters of Americans want to depose militarily. They've shown their true colors, their true allegiance. Relations between the US and Saudi Arabia will now get progressively cooler until such time as the Saudi regime change takes place.

The alternative, a full-scale alignment with us, might seem preferable. I don't think so. Part of the reason is that it was never really possible for them to fully align with us. Any attempt to do so would have been a pretense. Any actual genuine attempt at it would have resulted in a revolution there, and that was something the House of Saud would never have risked.

It is better to have an honest enemy than a lying friend. It's as simple as that. We now know which Saudi Arabia is.