Stardate 20020210.1311

(On Screen): One problem with coalition planning is that partners sometimes have big mouths don't always maintain confidentiality. German Chancellor Shroeder says that the US isn't going to attack Iraq. I have a feeling that something was lost in translation here; I suspect what he was told was that at the time they spoke that there were no concrete plans in place to attack Iraq. It surely wasn't intended to be a commitment to never do so.

But even if no such attack was planned or even contemplated, it would be a mistake to let the Iraqi government know that. The potential for an attack places pressure on them in ways which are useful to us. To let them know that no attack is coming will give them greater freedom to operate against us diplomatically and in other ways, and reduces the power of our threats and diplomatic moves against them.

So even if what Schroeder says is true, it is a mistake for him to have gone public with it. When threats fail, action becomes more likely. By saying what he did, he increases the chance of actual war in Iraq.