Stardate 20011229.1520

(On Screen): Carmen San Diego, move over. We've got a new will-o-the-wisp; so let's play that new game Where's Osama? You're going to be a lot of speculation and statements about this, but the vast majority of them are going to be totally useless.

It's not so much that people will know the truth and lie about it, as that they're not going to have any more idea of the truth than you or I -- and will lie about it.

Government officials and various people in power will all claim, "He's not here! He's over there instead; go bomb them instead, OK?"

I think he's dead. I really do. I haven't seen any of the most recent videotape, but it's reported that not only did he appear gaunt and pale, but that the left-handed bin Laden never showed his left arm and never moved it. I think he's been badly wounded.

Others have characterized the tape as a good-bye message; in it he talks about how the struggle must continue even after he's gone.

Now suppose that he'd been badly wounded, and had contracted a terrible infection. Hiding in a cave, without any medical supplies, it's entirely possible for such a person to be healthy enough to make a tape while being certain of death. For example, if gangrene had set in, he'd be in pain but fully conscious; and he'd also be doomed. So for someone in that position, what better to do in his final days than to record one last tape exhorting the faithful to continue with the battle?

The second thing is that I don't think we'll ever find the body. If he has indeed died, I think his people would conceal the corpse. His value to the movement is far greater with his fate unknown than it is as a known martyr, especially if he died cornered in a lonely cave, overwhelmed by American air power.

It's just a guess, but I thought it would be interesting to go on the record with it.