|
|||
Small "proportional" retaliations, especially those targeted at Arafat and the Palestinian Authority, have the effect of weakening them and of angering more Palestinians who will then join such groups as Hamas and the PFLP to get back at Israel. It seems as if they're giving Arafat one last chance to "crack down on the militants". It is indeed true that previous efforts by the Palestinian Authority to do that have been half-hearted and ineffectual, but the reason is that they cannot do anything more than that. For Israel, cooperation with the Palestinian Authority is pointless and negotiation with them is equally pointless. I can only really see two courses of action and they're both unsatisfactory. First is what amounts to ethnic cleansing. Eject all non-citizen Palestinians from Israel permanently; if they wish to move between Gaza and the West Bank they'd have to fly, but would not be permitted on the ground. All border areas would then be fortified, with a double barbed-wire fence with a mine field in between, and regular patrols to look for evidence of incursions. (In this scenario, Jerusalem is a special problem, for obvious reasons.) This would be extremely drastic and would have profound economic effects, because the Israeli economy relies heavily on cheap Palestinian labor, but it's slowly been weaned away from that in the past because of periodic closures of the borders. This would also require a 100% withdrawal of "settlers" from Palestinian lands. Israel would then become a garrison state, and let the Palestinians do whatever they wanted to do in their own lands. Second is to go all out into war, no delay, no argument, no half measures. Send the army in to both Gaza and the West Bank, occupy the whole area and take over. No more "messages", no more warnings, no more anything limited. Balls to the wall, and fight until there is no more resistance. And both answers are unsatisfactory because neither solves the problem. If Israel becomes a garrison state, it is still subject to attack (because no defense can ever be perfect and no border non-porous) and it's hard to see what it could do in response. If it takes over the Palestinian lands, it will have perpetual warfare. Either way, it will become an international pariah (even worse than now). One thing is evident, however, and that is that Arafat's "round up the usual suspects" act isn't going to fly this time. Israel (and the United States) are demanding much more out of him. That suggests that they're trying to find a third course, and I think I know what it is: I think they're trying to set off a Palestinian civil war. Whether Arafat understands the reason for it or not, he's resisting the pressure and trying to look for a different way out, one which preserves the status quo (which includes preserving his life and such power as he retains). That's not possible within the theatre, so he's appealing for help to the outside world. He's asking the Europeans for help, but there's not much they can give him besides their usual clucking and handwringing and "calls" for peace and restraint. Israel isn't going to listen to that this time, any more than the US is with respect to Afghanistan, and it is exceedingly unlikely that the Europeans would do any more than that. Arafat is also asking the UN Security Council for action, but of course the US is a veto power and there will be no such action. The situation is very fluid; it's almost impossible to predict what will happen. One possibility is that the Israeli government will fall, though in that case it is virtually certain that an even more right-wing government will replace it, with no Peres to push for restraint. That means that the political climate in Israel can only get worse for Arafat. Another possibility is that Arafat will recognize that he isn't going to be rescued from outside, and he'll tell Israel to stuff its demands for action against the terrorists. That will set off a full scale war with Israel. (The same thing happens if he attempts a half-hearted response.) The third possibility is that he knuckles under and really does try to take out Hamas, which likely sets off the Palestinian civil war. The fourth possibility is that he boogies, and the resulting power struggle to replace him also sets off the civil war. Or Israel might kill him, again setting off that same power struggle. (As part of his process of keeping himself in power, Arafat has made sure there is no obvious successor; it was a way of preventing a palace coup.) The only thing which is certain at this point: a lot of people are going to die violently. It's too late to pull back from the abyss; all paths lead to war. (discuss) Update 20011205: Here's
| |||
