USS Clueless              Voyages of a restless mind

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Stardate 20011203.1628 (On Screen): Arafat is the quintessential survivor. Playing the weakest possible political hand, he has been adept mainly at staying above water, a wood chip tossed by the waves of a storm. It's unfortunate, but Arafat's primary goal has always been the survival of Arafat; aiding the Palestinian cause has always come second. But not even a wood chip can stay afloat forever, and I think that Arafat's days as a player on the world political scene are numbered. He has always been caught in a situation where some want him to be harder on Israel and some want him to be harder on Palestinian militants, and he has managed for years to steer a course in the middle which didn't really satisfy anyone but also didn't outrage either enough to take action against him. Now he won't be able to do that anymore, and he doesn't have the ability to do anything else.

With the current United States war on terrorism and with the attacks on Israel a few days ago by Hamas, there is no longer any middle ground. I think there are only a few possiblities now and all of them spell doom for Arafat.

First, he can really genuinely try to crack down on Hamas and other groups like that, as the US is now demanding. In that case, either he'll be assassinated by other Palestinians, or the Palestinians will break into open civil war. Second, he can refuse the demands of the US and Israel to really do so -- and risk being killed by direct Israeli military action or covert assassination by Mossad, not to mention the fact that this would set off a real, full-scale war with Israel. Third, he can boogie; grab the largest stash of cash he can find and live out his days in rich exile, surrounded by bodyguards, in a velvet lined cage somewhere. (There's also the possibility that he might drop dead of natural causes. He is over 70, and no-one lives forever.)

What he doesn't have the ability to do, and has never really had, is to actually make and enforce a settlement with the Israelis that ends the violence on both sides. He is a leader of only part of the Palestinian cause, and increasingly the Palestinians in general are becoming disillusioned with him. He retains most of his prestige for no other reason than because there's no obvious replacement, no other high profile Palestinian with access to the world stage to speak on behalf of those people. But it's becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that a high profile spokesman who can't actually say anything is not an asset.

Without Arafat, the Palestinians will split into open anarchy, with no single group in charge. Instead of one enemy leader with which to deal and castigate and blame, the Israelis will find themselves facing ten or more each of which has a different agenda. And they may soon find themselves nostalgic for the good old days when there was only Arafat with which to deal. (discuss)

Update: The envelope please. And the answer is... open war with Israel.