USS Clueless              Voyages of a restless mind

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Stardate 20011129.1435 (On Screen via long range sensors): I suspect that the Europeans will probably try to use the same means to keep the US in line (i.e. diplomatic pressure, "calls for" cooperation, public expressions of disapproval) as they've been trying to use for the last twenty years about every other trouble spot in the world.

And it's going to have about the same amount of effectiveness. The Washington Times and ABC have released the results of a poll taken of American voters regarding the war and future American foreign policy, and it does not indicate that Americans care too much about coalition building or European disapproval.

Do you support or oppose the U.S. military action in Afghanistan? 91% support the war.
Would you support or oppose U.S. military action against other countries that assist or shelter terrorists? 81% support such action.
Would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power? 78% are in favor.

There are a couple of things about the question phrasing which are noteworthy. First, notice that the question about Iraq does not specify anything about proof of complicity by Iraq in the WTC bombing, nor in anthrax, nor does it require proof of his owning or developing weapons of mass destruction. The American voters are fed up with Saddam Hussein and want him out -- and don't appear to need any other justification.

Second, notice that all the questions are phrased as US action, not "coalition action" or "NATO action" or "UN action" or "action by the US and its allies". Despite the fact that all of them specify unilateral US action, they are overwhelmingly supported by American voters. Which suggests that European expressions of disapproval, and angry speeches in London or Berlin or Paris or Rome will have little or no effect on American foreign policy with regards to the rest of the world. American voters are clearly willing to go it alone if need be. But it might well have substantial effect on American foreign policy with respect to Europe.

If, as I expect, the United States ends up going into military action again, somewhere besides Afghanistan (e.g. Somalia), and if the Europeans refuse to provide any support and publicly and actively condemn the US while it does so, then I think the result will be to destroy NATO as an effective organization. It may continue to exist, but US commitment and contribution to it would wane and it will become meaningless, outliving its time and serving no purpose. I don't think that the US would formally pull out, just that the US would ignore it and stop supporting it. (discuss)

Ben Franklin said, "A friend in need is a friend indeed." The US has proved beyond all doubt what kind of friend it is to Europe. Now we'll learn what kind of friends the European nations are to the US, and that will decide the future of NATO.