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Stardate 20011127.1334 (On Screen): The diplomatic pressure on Iraq has begun. Bush has issued what amounted to a blunt demand that Iraq start complying again (really complying this time) with the UN weapons inspectors, and iraq responded by saying "Lift the sanctions first." That won't happen, of course. But this time the US statement wasn't a "called for"; it was a threat.

Asked what would happen if the Iraqi leader did not comply, Bush said: "He'll find out."

Secretary of State Colin Powell told CNN in an exclusive interview on Monday's Larry King Live that Hussein should take President Bush's demand as a "very sober, chilling message."

This is the result of one of the goals in Afghanistan having been met. Even though the war has not yet been finished there, a clear example has already been made of the Taliban. That was precisely required so that we could say to other bad guys (like Saddam) "Cooperate, or you're next." And that, in essence, is what Bush just said.

Iraq is playing the "Poor little oppressed Muslim Arab nation being oppressed by the big bad Western Christian nation" card as hard as it can, such as its denunciation of the way that the prisoner escape attempt in Mazar-e Sharif was handled. Of course, once they had captured arms and were resisting forcibly, they were no longer prisoners. It's a bit unfortunate that it was necessary to kill them all, but it was their choice, and in a sense that further serves the long term political goal by demonstrating that the US will no longer back away from doing what needs to be done.

Saddam is trying to play to the Arab street, both inside Iraq and in other Arab nations. The evidence is that the events in Afghanistan have really changed how the "street" is reacting to things; they seem to be a bit shocked by how rapidly and completely the Taliban collapsed. (Hell, we all were shocked by that.) So I'm not sure I believe that this card will do Iraq much good, especially with the US simultaneously helping "the street" in Afghanistan itself. With the people there actually doing better than before, it's a bit hard to characterize us as big bullies on the hunt to kill every Muslim who draws breath. (Which was also one of the goals of this.)

In a statement carried by the official Iraqi News Agency, an Iraqi government spokesman said: "Anyone who thinks Iraq can accept an arrogant and unilateral will of this party or that, is mistaken.

"Iraq is able to defend its self and rights and will not bow to threats but only to justice, and right."

The diplomatic goal for the US is to make it so that Iraq runs out of cards and does indeed begin to really cooperate. The fear is that Iraq will have painted itself into a corner before then so that its prior utterances make it so that it cannot give in. I'm not too worried about that yet; based on the current rhetoric, if Iraq gives in they'll do so by playing the Arab Victim card again, portraying themselves as not having any choice. (Which, ironically, may well be the case.) But if their rantings become much more bellicose, then we may be forced to actually wage war there. (discuss)