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There are also reports that the French will be moving forces into Afghanistan very soon, ("within days"). Which makes me wonder whether we're going to be moving any of our own people in. I've been expecting to hear that elements of the 10th Mountain Division currently in Uzbekistan had moved to Mazar-e Sharif to develop the airport there, but so far there have been no announcements. (Which doesn't mean it isn't happening, but it seems as if they would say so if it did.) What I'm wondering is whether Bush and Blair are doing a deliberate good-cop-bad-cop here, where the British and French (and maybe representatives of a couple of other nations like Canada, which is reportedly sending a thousand men) do the protection-of-humanitarian-aid mission, while the US (and maybe the Australians) end up on the ground in southern Afghanistan to prosecute the fighting against the remnants of the Taliban. It would be an attempt to avoid another yellow-bomblet-yellow-food-package mistake; if US troops are handing out food in some places and fighting other places, it may confuse people. Better if they see the one kind of uniform always handing out food and another always fighting. A lot of that depends on the extent to which our commanders intend to ignore the Afghan winter, which should be setting in within days. It may be that they are still thinking about letting the theater go to sleep, to maintain bombing pressure but to not begin ground action until the weather lifts. Or to defer it until the Taliban settle in for the winter, immobilizing itself, so that our 10th Mountain Division, which are specialists in fighting in winter conditions and rough terrain, could catch them by surprise. (Skis are to the 10th what parachutes are to the 82nd.) But it would be a little strange for the US to not commit any ground forces at all, especially now, and if there is not expected to be any resumption of major ground hostilities any time soon, then some of our people should be involved in pacification and distribution of aid. In the mean time, I wish the Royal Marines well. They're good men and I hope that this doesn't blow up in their faces. The risk is low, in my opinion, but non-zero. All it takes is a digruntled ex-Taliban soldier in the hills with a sniper scope to ruin a lot of Royal Marines' days. (discuss) Update 20011116: French troops are deploying in Mazar-e Sharif. I guess the 10th Mountain Division won't be handling that one after all. |
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