Stardate 20011114.1133 (On Screen): This article from StratFor tries to claim that the Taliban did not suffer a rout, but rather made a strategic withdrawal. Unfortunately, the case they make for that is extremely weak and doesn't agree with the evidence. It is true in a sense that they are trying to recover a situation which has suddenly gone very badly against them, but that's because most of their units did indeed rout.
For example, when their troops abandoned Kabul, they left behind most of their heavy artillery. That's a major military asset and at this point it will be exceedingly difficult to replace -- and as this article points out, without artillery they have little chance of recovering lost ground. By the same token, much of what used to be Taliban forces has defected to the other side, much has disintegrated from outright desertion, and a fair amount of their force is isolated in pockets in the north (such as in the city of Kondoz). They've also taken substantial casualties and lost a considerable number of prisoners. As a result, it may well have been the case that they had an army of 40,000 last week, but they certainly have nothing like that now which they can concentrate for effective operations. And now it's reported that the city of Kandahar, their last major stronghold, may also have fallen.
It is unquestionably the case that one should never underestimate an opponent. But it is equally a mistake to overestimate one. A rational view of their strengths and their weaknesses is the best, and right now the Taliban are very much down, but not yet out. But the StratFor article makes it sound like they planned all of this and that we are somehow falling into a crafty trap of theirs by beating the crap out of their army. That's a mistaken impression. This truly was a victory and a major one. The war isn't over, but the situation now for us is a damned sight better than it was a week ago. The Taliban will move into the hills and try to fight a guerrilla action, but there are ways of dealing with that. Our situation is far from dire. (Theirs is next door to dire.) Stratfor is correct about one thing: this war ain't over, and it may well be that it won't be for a long time. But great strides have been taken, and it doesn't pay to be too pessimistic. (discuss)
