USS Clueless              Voyages of a restless mind

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Stardate 20011113.0759 (On Screen): The situation of the government of Pakistan is more than anomalous; they've been facing a dilemma for weeks. They were behind the Taliban in the first place, but that became untenable and the Taliban had to be abandoned. But Pakistan fostered the Taliban in the first place because the Northern Alliance was considered to be a danger to Pakistan -- and now that they are becoming ascendant, Pakistan faces the possibility of them again being in charge. To some extent their involvement in the ultimate Afghan government is unavoidable. President Musharraf of Pakistan is struggling to find some way out, but it's not clear there is one. For him there are no good answers.

But some answers are worse than others. He wants Kabul to be patrolled by "international peacekeeping forces" instead of by the Northern Alliance, which is probably impractical any time soon. But his immediate plan for that would be to use a mix of Turkish and Pakistani military units -- and that's impossible. Given that much of the Taliban force just evicted from the city was made up of Pakistanis, there isn't any way that the people there, or the Northern Alliance itself, would welcome a new invasion by Pakistanis. Peacekeeping forces can only work if the people in the area are glad to see them; otherwise it's just a prescription for further conflict. The idea of Turkish forces is an interesting one, but the reality is that there will be no international occupation of Kabul anytime soon.

The incredible military events of the last three days make the political problem of post-war Afghanistan increasingly urgent. But it won't be solved by bandaids. President Musharraf will need to learn patience. (discuss)

Update: Looks like I'm going to have to see about repairs to the subspace crystal ball. The Northern Alliance have asked for international help in Kabal. They seem to have taken a quantum leap in sophistication in their dealings with world politics; I wonder if someone is feeding them strategy? (I think I might smell the SAS...)

Actually, it may well be the results of some back-room dealing with the US and UK, where our special forces guys made a deal with the NA to the effect: we'll offer you close air support in your campaign if you promise to be good afterwards in victory and control your troops.