Stardate 20011112.2031 (On Screen): Well, I confess that I called this one wrong. It is reported that Kabul has fallen and the Taliban are retreating to the south. There are
reports of a column of motor vehicles (tanks, APCs and trucks) moving along a road towards Kandahar. If so, they're screwed; our air forces will be all over them. Anything that can fly and drop bombs will be in the air and on the hunt.
It may well be rather the case that the defenses have been breached and that Kabul is now disputed. We'll know by tomorrow. If it is true that they've pulled out, then the rapid rate at which Taliban resistance has collapsed is quite stunning. What might have happened is that the Taliban military was comprised of segments of radically different quality, and that the best units were in and were destroyed in Mazar-e Sharif; once they were out of the picture, the Northern Alliance were free to move on other objectives which were defended by third rate troops which couldn't actually be relied upon. It may well be that most of the defenders of Kabul were such, and that the combination of knowledge of the fall of Mazar-e Sharif and weeks of bombing by US air units combined to make their morale crack. So despite the cautious tone of this report, I suspect that it truly is the case that Kabul has fallen, though there may well still be fighting going on there. The critical question now will be whether the road east to Pakistan is secure, so that it can be used to bring in supplies. If indeed the Northern Alliance does take control of Kabul, it is essential that there not be mass starvation in that city this winter. (discussion in progress)
By the way, I believe that we can now be reasonably certain that the US air campaign has not in fact been a failure.
