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Stardate 20011112.1105 (On Screen): I'm becoming more convinced that today's crash in NYC was just a terrible and unfortunate accident. I think it will be discovered to be some sort of structural failure or engine explosion, and not the result of inimical action. But if it is the result of inimical action, I think it will be the result of a shoulder-fired SAM, not the result of anything on board. Reports are that the left engine was burning and then fell off the jet, after which it banked left and nose-dived into the ground. In theory it should be possible to fly such a jet on only one engine, but in practice it takes a while for the pilots to recover control of the jet when something that drastic happens, and with the jet as low to the ground as it was they may simply not have had the time they needed.

The reports are not consistent with a bomb on board the jet, unless it was specifically placed on the engine. A bomb in the fusilage would have made the fusilage disintegrate, and at the very least the tail of the jet would have hit quite a ways from the rest of the body. Also, a bomb in the jet itself (say, in cargo or baggage) would not have made an engine separate without causing the entire jet to scatter in pieces. It's conceivable that a carefully placed bomb could have done that, but why would an attacker go to all that trouble?

A SAM, on the other hand, would be an IR seeker and would home in on one of the engines; in that sense it is at least a bit more plausible than a planted bomb. But I lean against that explanation until more evidence of it is uncovered. With as many people as there are in NYC and at least some of them looking upwards, eyewitnesses should appear soon. More to the point, it would be picked up on radar. So if this was a SAM, I think evidence of that will develop. That is surely something that will be carefully considered.

The A-300 is a good, reliable jet but it has had its share of crashes over the years; this is not by any means the first. What happened today is a great tragedy, but let's not get carried away with fear. (discuss)

Update: This is the engine which fell off the jet. It would not be in the shape it is in if it had been hit by a SAM. I am virtually certain now that this was not the result of an attack.