Stardate 20011110.2024 (On Screen): With bin Laden's claim that he has nukes which would only be used in retaliation to our use of nukes (which I think is a canard) there's been much discussion of the likelihood that al Qaeda actually has access to nuclear weapons. I don't think they do, if for no other reason than because if they did I believe they would have used them by now. But most discussion of where they might have been acquired has focused on the possibility of gaining them from the ashes of the USSR.
Actually, I think that the most likely scenario is that they would acquire them from Pakistan, either by capture or bribery or most likely within the chaos following a revolution. In a circumstance like this it is necessary to be ruthless, and if indeed there is any chance of Pakistan losing control of its bombs, it will be necessary for the US to guarantee that they are destroyed rather than being captured, most likely through the use of bombing. This may even require that we use a nuke of our own (though I hope it doesn't come to that), for this is a matter where we must be certain. (discuss)
Update 20011111: Pakistan's government claims that it is increasing the security of the weapons, among other things by dispersal. If that means that there are now several sites instead of only one each of which contain all that is needed to set off a blast, I am not reassured; and since the primary objective in such an installation would be fissionable materials, that's what this amounts to. All I can hope is that US intelligence is keeping track of all the locations.
