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CNN provides this analysis of the importance of the city. It points out that the primary asset is the airfield. Almost certainly we will begin operating that as soon as the area is fully pacified, but that won't happen without a considerable US ground presence. There is no chance that the US would rely on Northern Alliance forces exclusively for security and protection, especially for bulk supplies once those are shipped in. I am becoming more convinced that elements of the 10th Mountain Division will move down from Uzbekistan and take over the airport. This will also open a reasonable supply route whereby the Russians can begin to ship in arms and ammunition, which is important, though for the moment that would have to be done with heavily-armed convoys because that road isn't secure yet. The vast majority of the weapons that the Northern Alliance have been using until now have been Russian; it would make no sense for the US to begin to ship in primarily American weaponry for the Northern Alliance, and the Russians have expressed a willingness to continue to supply them with what they know. (Although there may be some kinds of things we could provide: grenades are pretty straightforward and single-shot rocket launchers like LAWS could be useful.) Other kinds of supplies, on the other hand, from the US should start flowing once the airfield is usable, such as food and winter clothing, tents, blankets and medical supplies. "Usable" comes in three stages. Anything open and secure is usable for parachute drops of supplies, for obvious reasons, and if a battalion of the 10th does move in, that will initially be the primary way by which they will be supplied. Food, construction material (i.e. cement, steel matting, prefab buildings), clothing, and medicine can be brought in this way, but heavy equipment cannot be. Once a reasonable section of the airstrip has been cleared, it's possible for a cargo plane to perform a low-level operation where it flies about 10 feet above the airfield and drops a palette out the back, which is then slowed to a stop by a parachute as it drags along the ground. The plane doesn't land, and this doesn't require that the airfield be all that long nor that its surface be completely regular. That will permit them to bring in heavier equipment like bulldozers which would be needed to fully repair the airstrip. This can also be done on an open stretch of flat hard ground, like a dry lakebed. Light tanks or armored cars or light artillery pieces can also be dropped this way. The primary requirement for this is that the area not be under fire because the cargo planes are vulnerable while they do this. Once the strip is fully recovered, of course, then big transports would be able to land, which can bring in anything up to main battle tanks and self-propelled artillery. (discuss) |
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