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If true, this is an important event. First, it's a major defeat for the Taliban. Second, this city has a large airport which can be used to bring in supplies to Northern Alliance forces during the upcoming winter. Third, it removes all ability for the Taliban to directly threaten Uzbekistan, which may well make that nation less reluctant to permit US forces to operate offensively from its territory. If indeed Taliban forces are retreating towards Kabul, they are probably mostly using that single road extending through the mountains, and in that case they are in deep trouble. Once they are well away from that city, likely that road will be turned into a killing zone by our air units. It appears to be at least 400 km but probably nearer to 500 depending on how windy that road is to reach Kabul, and through terrain that rough it isn't going to be fast movement. There probably are bridges on it, and once the retreating forces are committed those bridges will come down. (But not until then!) Little with wheels or tracks is going to survive this retreat. (discussion in progress) Update: Nick reports that the road in question isn't passable because a major tunnel on it was destroyed three years ago. If that's the case, the Taliban forces are in even bigger trouble; they'll be retreating over open terrain without any kind of supplies; movement will be slow and they will be very vulnerable. That means that this force will be militarily useless for a long time if not forever. Update: I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict what will happen next. What I suspect is that after the Northern Alliance has secured the city and the Taliban really are away, one of the two reinforced battalions of the 10th Mountain Division which are currently in Uzbekistan will move forward to Mazar-e Sharif and secure the airport there. Their engineers will repair any damage and begin to operate it, while the infantry will form a perimeter to guard the place. Then we'll start bringing in supplies and possibly other forces. Almost certainly a few helicopters will be based there. I also don't think that American units will try to control the city itself; that will be left to the Northern Alliance. |
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