Stardate 20011026.0602 (On Screen): There was a chance, maybe 1 in 4, that it would be possible to engineer wholesale defections of the warlords in the Taliban coalition, but it appears that it has largely failed. That's unfortunate; it means that there won't be a quick end to this war. It was a long shot, but it had to be tried. At this point, I see two possibilities for the future, both of which involve more direct military action. In both cases air assaults against Taliban troops will increase in frequency and lethality. To begin with, I suspect we'll see more concerted military action by special forces, possibly through the winter. The Afghans themselves generally don't campaign in the winter there because it's too bitterly cold, but it may be possible for our special forces and/or the 10th Division to do some operations during those intervals, and it is certainly possible for our air forces to continue attacking, so as to keep the Taliban's forces weakened and off balance. If that doesn't manage to pull off a victory, then there will be a build up of ground forces leading to a more general ground assault next spring. At this point I think there's less than one chance in ten of this ending before the onset of winter.
(discuss)
