Stardate 20011012.0957 (On Screen): During the last day there has been a substantial amount of bombing of military targets in the vicinity of Kabul. Reports indicate that
an ammunition dump was hit, and it's likely that they've also been bombing artillery positions. Having done that, our jets are now bombing Taliban troop positions just north of Kabul, to weaken and demoralize them. Once that's complete, there will likely be an assault by Northern Alliance forces. I expect Kabul to fall, possibly within as little as three days.
One thing to watch for is a collapse of the Taliban. The political and psychological result of losing the nation's largest city may undermine confidence and support for the Taliban elsewhere in the country. There are already reports of wholesale defections and of loss of local control; it's apparent that the forces commanded by the Taliban were not quite as loyal and motivated as they would like us to believe. Moreover, there will probably be a lot of outright desertions among young men forcibly impressed into service. The wild card in the deck is the core of Arab (i.e. foreign) soldiers who are mainly loyal to bin Laden; they're likely to continue to resist. With any luck, they'll be somewhere that can be attacked by air. Their bravery and discipline will do them little good against cluster bombs. (discuss)
Update: I think the chance of a Taliban attack on Uzbekistan is now nil. The supply lines to that area are extreme long and uncertain, and any movement towards the border would make that area absolutely top priority for bombing.
