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Stardate 20011006.1346 (On Screen): I think the US theory of the Russian jet liner being downed by a misdirected Ukrainian SAM is very likely. If you look at it from a very cold utilitarian viewpoint, it would be to the political advantage of the US for it to have been an act of terrorism. It would have given President Putin much more political cover for supporting us in our struggle against Afghanistan, for example, and it would show that international terrorist activity didn't end on 9/11, as some may wish were the case, which would help increase the urgency and cooperation of a lot of other nations. And there is no advantage for the US in embarassing Ukraine; we've had our differences, but they're not an enemy.

So I believe the US claim to have spotted a missile launch at the time from a spy satellite. The US has no incentive to have made up and publicized such a story, and it is inevitable that such a claim would have to be backed up (and the Russians have indeed asked for proof, "urgently"). So there is a very high likelihood that such a missile was actually launched when and where the US says it was. And in a case like this I don't believe in coincidences: if a missile designed to shoot down jets was launched at the time and place where a jet exploded and crashed, there is a strong likelihood that the two events are related. (After all, it's happened before.)

Reports of "bullet holes" in a recovered pilot's door may or may not be relevant. These kinds of missiles don't necessarily move in and physically contact the target; that would be too difficult and the miss rate would be too high especially when trying to intercept an enemy missile. Missiles like the Patriot actually work by exploding short of their target and firing forward a large number of small projectilesm, more or less like a big shotgun round going off. It's entirely plausible that the SAM which was fired from Ukraine had a similar warhead, and if so the "bullet holes" would have been caused by some of the projectiles from the missile warhead and not actually by a firearm. (discuss)

Update: Evidence is mounting that it was a Ukrainian missile.