Stardate 20011005.1413 (On Screen): The government of Uzbekistan is getting cold feet. They'll let the US deploy units there, and they'll let us use their airbases for humanitarian and rescue operations. I suspect part of the reason why is that they still have a (well-founded) fear of Taliban forces. For the moment, we don't have any military power there, and if they announce what amounts to a full alliance with us against the Taliban, the Taliban might invade. I don't think that Uzbekistan has anything like a first class military. Once there is a substantial US military presence in the vicinity, and once it becomes clear that the Taliban are on the run, they may change their tune. But what's interesting is that there seems to be something of a bidding war going on amongst the various nations in that area to try to curry favor with the US, because of course after hostilities cease we'll remember who helped us and who didn't.
For instance, President Shevardnadze of Georgia is actually in Washington DC right now and has announced that the US can use Georgian bases to launch attacks. For Georgia that's an easier thing to do, since they share no border with Afghanistan. It's not a trivial offer, either; Georgia borders the Black Sea and we could use ships to move supplies there (which is far more efficient than using air, which would be necessary for Uzbekistan) and if Russia permits us to use its airspace (which I expect; President Putin has been playing a canny game, too) then it might be the case that Uzbekistan might permit its airspace to be used for attacks as long as the attacks don't actually originate from there. If it doesn't, then it would give Turkmenistan a chance to make a bid by letting us use its airspace instead. And of course, the Georgian offer puts pressure on Turkey in case they hold back. I'm still not sure that there's any advantage of air strikes launched from these areas over using Oman, except for the fact that strikes from Oman would have to cross Pakistani airspace, and all of this may simply be a way of making sure that we're not closed out in case Pakistan gets cold feet. The preferred approach is still from the south, for bombers from Diego Garcia and Oman and fighters from Oman and our carriers, and helicopters from our carriers. Who said diplomacy was simple? It's no wonder this is taking so long to put together. (discuss)
