Stardate 20010919.2218 (On Screen): Sean sends in this link to an analysis of the military options available to the US. It's a brief analysis of the situation and who might have to be attacked, plus an analysis of the assets available to the US for doing so. It's by an organization called "CDI" which claims on its splash page to be "the nation's foremost independent military research organization." If so, i'm rather suprised by some of the lapses in its analysis. It's OK as far as it goes, but in my opinion they have far too much faith in the B-2, which I think would be nearly useless for this kind of operation. But, then, I think the B2 is useless for nearly any kind of operation. It's true that B2's were used once in the bombing of Kosovo, but only because that was an opportunity to give them a try. They didn't make any kind of significant contribution. It apparently required a 32-hour sortie for the one attack they launched into Yugoslavia, and Afghanistan is fully 2500 miles further away. The only way they'd be useful is if they could be based further forward, and I don't believe they can be.
On the other hand, the analysis doesn't mention the B1 at all, even though B1's have already been ordered into the region. The B1 was, for a long time, a hanger queen but apparently ten years after they were deployed they've finally got them to the point where they're useful, and this may be their first big war. They'll probably be deployed to Diego Garcia. The analysis mentions some of our carrier groups but doesn't mention the Theodore Roosevelt battle group, which just left port yesterday headed east. Supposedly they're heading for the Mediterranean, but they could be redeployed if need be.
One goal of military operations will be defeat in detail (i.e. "divide and conquer"); the idea being to fight one enemy at a time and to apply the full force available to it then once it is defeated to move to the next, rather than trying to fight them all at once. It is likely, therefore, that our naval forces in the Mediterranean will be beefed up while we are operating against Afghanistan, so as to intimidate Libya and Syria to make sure they don't get involved. Khaddafi has already had experience with the US Navy and shows no sign of wanting a return match. Even if Roosevelt group hadn't been scheduled for the Mediterranean already, it would have been sent now. Interestingly, Roosevelt group includes the amphibious attack ship Bataan a light carrier which also serves as the mother ship for a Marine assault group. (Note that "light" is a relative term; Bataan displaces more than any of the Essex-class carriers from WWII.) Likely the group which it would have relieved will remain, as happened when Vinson relieved Enterprise and Enterprise remained in the area. We will not be getting told exact ship movements, but I put the odds at 10:1 that Enterprise and its escorts are sitting off the coast of Pakistan right now, and when bombing starts (which I think is now inevitable) aircraft from Enterprise and missiles launched from its escorts will almost certainly be involved in the first strike. It would be extremely interesting to know if Enterprise group also includes an amphibious attack ship. (discuss)
