Stardate 20010911.2132 (On Screen): At least three major buildings collapsed, thousands of people dead and many thousands more injured, and Manhattan paralyzed, and the US maybe to go to war: the effects of the attack today are catastrophic. But we may not have seen all the impact yet. These were not just buildings; they were offices where people worked and computers were housed and records were kept and which performed essential functions for dozens or hundreds of companies. All that is now gone; what effect will it have on the economy? How will it ripple out? Insurance companies will take a bath on this; there will be payouts in the billions of dollars. Those insurance companies will have to sell securities to raise cash to make their payments, which may drive the markets down -- once they open again. People may be afraid and may slow down purchases.
I read something once which was discussing the San Andreas Fault, and it included an analysis of the effects of a major quake in San Francisco or Los Angeles. It turned out that with our economy being as distributed as it is, destruction of one major city would have rippling economic effects such as to cause an economic crash in fairly short order. This was not as dramatic as taking out LA, and the effects will be smaller -- but not imperceptible. There has been speculation that this may actually set off a real recession in the US, as opposed to the "slowdown" we're actually in. For all the pain going on economically now, the US GDP continues to grow quarter-over-quarter. This attack may result in an actual decline, the first in nearly ten years. (discuss)
