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In time of war, it is usual to demonize one's opponent. It is sometimes quite amazing to see the flip-flop this goes through. For instance, the Stalin portrayed in the US in 1944 was completely unlike the one portrayed in the US in 1951; in 1944 he was an ally against Hitler, while in 1951 he was the enemy in the Cold War. But even more to the point, because of how we are built it is much easier for us to hate people than to hate abstract concepts. The leader of the enemy will be demonized because he is being made into an icon representing the other side. When you read some of the propaganda in the US during the war, as often as not you'll hear the phrase "defeat Hitler" instead of "defeat Germany". The posters which depict the European enemy don't depict a map of Germany or any recognizable landmarks, they nearly always showed Hitler's face -- often subtly modified to make him vaguely repulsive. I've been watching the Israelis do the same thing with Arafat. It doesn't help that Arafat is himself a rather ugly man; it just makes him all that much easier to iconize. But Arafat is now over 70; he won't last forever. And for the moment it appears that he is the only thing holding the Palestinian Authority together. He could die of natural causes or old age or assassination at any time, and then what? First off, I expect the Palestinian Authority to disintegrate. There has been no trace of an attempt by Arafat to designate a successor. (Were this a democratic situation, none would be needed because a successor would be selected by vote. But it isn't like that. He is an autocrat in a system where elections are a sham, just as is Mubarek in Egypt.) So upon his death there would be a power struggle which might well end up violent. Given that Palestinian territories are so fragmented anyway, the likelihood is that no single leader would emerge afterwards. The Palestinian territories would descend to anarchy, a series of small territories ruled by armed mobs led by local strongmen. Arafat's death will deprive the Israelis of two things: an icon to hate, and someone with which to negotiate. When Arafat dies the pot will boil over, with a marked increase in violence by Palestinians against other Palestinians and by Palestinians against Israelis. Arafat's heart is the ticking clock on a timebomb. (discuss) Update: In addition to the attack against the soldiers, there was an ambush in which three Israeli citizens died. An Israeli government spokesman said that "Yasser Arafat is escalating his war of terrorism against the state of Israel." Apparently he believes that Arafat personally planned and ordered the attacks. |
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