USS Clueless              Voyages of a restless mind

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Stardate 20010815.0931 (On Screen): The Palestinians are asking the UN for action, to include various things but especially to include "deployment of international observers to restore calm." It's not obvious just what observers would accomplish, other than to observe the Israelis and Palestinians as they continue to kill each other. I think the theory is that if observers were on the spot watching that this would somehow shame both sides into desisting from attacks, but there are actually observers there now and it isn't doing any good. Not only is there sufficient press coverage so that no attack is ever secret, but there are actually formal UN observers on the ground now in the West Bank.

Any foreign intervention would have to amount to an army of occupation. A few dozen or hundred un-armed observers won't accomplish jack; you'd need a couple of divisions of infantry with armored cars and tanks, with their own organic artillery and helicopters and a supporting carrier task force to provide heavy strike capability. You'd need rules of engagement which involved that force instantly and profoundly answering any strike by either side with immense retaliation. (For instance, any location from which a mortar was fired would be obliterated by artillery fire. Any location from which a sniper fired would receive an air strike. Any movement of armor would be destroyed from the air.) This is obviously inhumane and unacceptable, and it would convert the conflict from one where the Israelis and Palestinians were fighting each other into one where both were fighting against the occupying force, which is exactly what happened in both Lebanon and in Somalia. It's not clear that it would be any improvement. But short of such measures it's not obvious just what an international force would be capable of accomplishing beyond witnessing the continuation of the violence by both sides.

Yesterday someone asked me what I thought could be done to bring peace to Israel. I don't think there is anything that can be done. Peace cannot be imposed from outside. Peacekeeping forces are only successful when the people really want peace. The only way conflict will end is of both sides want it to end, and I don't see that happening for a very long time. That means that conflict will continue for years, possibly for decades, until it finally burns itself out from sheer fatigue, which is what happened in North Ireland and in Lebanon. Unfortunately, that's not good because in some cases fatigue never sets in. There has been ethnic fighting in the Balkans for 400 years and they don't seem to be tired of it yet. The US could end the conflict in Israel by turning Gaza, the West Bank and Israel itself into a parking lot. Short of that, there's nothing we or anyone else outside the theater can actually do. (discuss)

Update 200116: The top foreign policy officer of Egypt wants US observers on the ground in Israel. His argument is precisely that the presence of witnesses will shame both sides into ceasing their aggression. There's no evidence that this is true, and evidence (existing observers) that it is false.