Stardate 20010807.0718 (On Screen): Covad, the last large independent DSL provider in California, is filing bankrupcy and trying to restructure its debt. This is, of course, just a holding action and they're likely to be dead soon like so many dot-coms before them. Telecom deregulation was a bust here; DSL provided by independent companies never really made sense economically. The capital expense was too high and the revenue growth curve was never right for a company who didn't have another reliable income stream. Consumer broadband can only really be introduced by established companies who already are profitable, because they're the ones who will already have most of the capital equipment in place and who will be willing and able to sustain years of losses to build the business slowly. Which is why consumer broadband will come from one of three places: cable companies, the big phone companies themselves, or the electric power companies. They're the ones who have the wiring already in place to deliver broadband to our homes.
The dark horse is the electric power companies. So far they're not competing, but that technology is being developed and if it can be made to work then it would be the most convenient form of broadband of all. The local broadband tranceiver could be plugged into any wall outlet anywhere in the house and would be able to tap into the signal without any local rewiring. Customers could go to a store to get the tranceiver. This would give them a convenience advantage over cable (which could only be used where there was a cable outlet) or DSL (which usually requires a visit from the phone company to rewire). And unlike DSL, there should be no range issues with power-line broadband. DSL's problem is that the local loop is wired with extremely small-gauge wire which isn't shielded. As a result, signal integrity declines badly with range. But electric power is delivered on big heavy cable, which will carry signals much better especially considering that they'll be putting a booster at each local power transformer. Still, my money's on the cable companies to be the winners. Of the three, they're the only ones whose "last mile" is deliberately designed to carry high bandwidth. (discuss)
