Stardate 20020328.1934

(On Screen): I put the odds at even money that Arafat will die within 48 hours.

That's because I think the government of Israel has reached the point where it has nothing to lose by killing him. It will be excoriated internationally, but it already is. Europe will make nasty faces towards Israel but do little else. The Arabs will denounce Israel, but they already do. And the US won't make any substantive changes in its policy towards Israel, which is really the only thing that matters. There will be nasty speechmaking in the UN but it won't make any difference. Any important actions by the Security Council will be vetoed by the US; anything that passes will be meaningless.

On the other hand, it will remove the fiction that Arafat controls anything, and force everyone to acknowledge the fact that the Palestinians are not united and don't speak with a single voice. With Arafat's voice silenced, it will become clear that there was never a single voice at all.

As a result of his death, there will be a major step up in violence, both within Israel and in the occupied territories. It will last a few months and then die down. That is the price Israel will have to pay. But after that, the situation will be immeasurably improved.

I think Sharon has decided that the status quo is intolerable, and this is what he has the ability to change. I think he knows the price and is willing to pay it.

If Israel wants Arafat dead, he cannot escape. They can bottle up Ramallah and comb it looking for him, and apply as much force as they need to in order to take him. Regardless of how large his bodyguard is, it cannot successfully resist the IDF. They won't try to capture him; they will decide that he will die in combat.

But if the government of Israel decides on this course of action, it will not announce it. It will just do it.

And I think Arafat knows this, which is why he has all of a sudden decided to ask for a cease fire. I think he realizes that the most recent bombing pushed Sharon over the line.