Stardate 20020228.1749

(On Screen): Eric Raymond predicts (yet again) that Microsoft's business model is doomed, and that it will be defeated by Open Source. (Let's see, that's about ten years in a row now that Microsoft's death has been predicted, hasn't it?) This time what will kill Microsoft is computers selling for less than $350. (Oddly enough, most PocketPCs sell for less than that and yet they contain Microsoft's software.)

Raymond and many other open-source backers, including major corporations such as Hewlett-Packard and IBM, believe that open-source software like the GNU/Linux operating system will ultimately challenge Microsoft's Windows monopoly.

The model of having a large, decentralized development community checking software for bugs inherently makes more sense than the proprietary development model, because the number of bugs grows in geometric proportion to the complexity of the software, Raymond believes. Even vast companies like Microsoft have to struggle to keep their software relatively bug-free, while open-source development communities can grow to be as large as they need to be to keep the software safe.

Open source works because "all the other methods of verification have run out of steam--we don't know anything that works so well," he said. "On a basic level, people are making the rediscovery that centralization doesn't work when you get to a certain level of complexity with any human endeavour."

In other news, someone named Eric Raymond says that the current development model for Linux is in crisis because of excessive centralization.

A major bug has been found in the open source scripting language PHP which can permit outsiders under some circumstances to take over a server or to crash it with a browser.

Caldera continues to lose money. VA Software (ex-VA-Linux) continues to lose money. Red Hat continues to lose money. Sun has un-GPLed all future versions of StarOffice and will start charging for it.

A study done for Germany's Bundestag concluded that converting its desktop computers from Windows to Linux was not practical at this time (probably due to lack of a sufficiently rich selection of applications).

And Microsoft's antitrust problems are nearly over, with a settlement which will probably be very favorable to Microsoft. The company won't be broken up and almost certainly won't have to give away the crown jewels.

Yup, Microsoft is in deep trouble. I can see it from here. I buhlieve, Eric! I buhlieve! Preach it, man!