Stardate 20020222.1245

(On Screen): I've been challenged (twice!) to comment on a plan announced by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to set up buffer zones between Israelis and Palestinians. I'm afraid I must disappoint the Banana Counting Monkey: I don't think this is at all analogous to the Maginot Line.

The purpose of the Maginot Line was to prevent a massed invasion. One of the things that many forget is that it actually succeeded, in a sense. The main attack didn't come through it. It ultimately fell because it was taken from the rear. Its problem was that it had an insecure flank. For political reasons, France could not build such fortifications along the Belgian border. The original idea had been that in case of war the French army would move into Belgium and fight the Germans there, but in the event the Belgian government stated that it would fight against any foreign army, even France's, which attempted to enter the nation. That, plus certain other mistakes and superior tactics and unit organization by the Germans resulted in catastrophic defeat.

What Sharon is proposing is not similar. There's no concern here about massed invasion of Israel from the Palestinian zones; what this is intended to do is to stop infiltration. A better analogy would be the Iron Curtain line which divided Germany during the latter part of the Cold War, which was set up by the USSR. It wasn't made up of massive fortifications; it was mainly barbed wire and minefields.

It was never intended to stop an invasion and could not have done so, nor indeed could any fortification have succeeded in doing so by the 1960's. What it was primarily intended to do was to keep the East Germans inside, and prevent them from escaping to the West. Its purpose was to prevent the movement of small numbers of lightly armed or unarmed people on foot from crossing the border. And it actually worked; some people escaped across it but not many. A lot of people died trying, though, either shot by guards or killed by exploding mines.

Another example from history would be the wall of barbed wire that the Italians (under Mussolini) built in Libya in response to a rebellion by Omar Mukhtar. Its purpose was primarily to stop the movement of supplies into Libya to support the rebels, and it worked, and the rebels were defeated by the loss of their supply line.

The situation in Israel right now is that it is virtually impossible for the Israeli government to guarantee the safety of its citizens, because it faces a dedicated foe which is willing, even eager, to die to hurt Israelis. With several hundred kilometers of border between the West Bank and Israel proper which is best described as "porous", there is no way to keep suicide bombers out. I think that what Sharon is thinking is that he may be able to cut that way down. And in any case, any eventual political solution will require drawing borders and they'll have to be guarded, so he might as well start now.

I don't think I believe it will solve the problem, but I think it might help some. But I think the main reason that Sharon is recommending it is because it looks like a positive step, and it may reassure Israeli voters.