Stardate 20020214.2106

(Captain's log): Fred writes:

I am constantly amazed at how many sites and/or people, magazines, newspapers, claim that Arafat is either not doing enough or ought to do more. Isn't it time to recognize he is unable to stop the terror groups that are nominally under the PLO, and, when terror folks are arrested they are quickly released again. The idea that Arafat "must do more" is simply nonsense. He can not. Or will not. Accept that and move on to the next step, whatever that may be.

I've said more than once that I thought Arafat wasn't actually capable of fully stopping the attacks. I'm not convinced, however, that he isn't capable of doing more than he has. What he's worried about is the potential that if he truly cracks down then he might set off a Palestinian civil war, which is a real possibility. What Israel and the US are trying to do now is to present him with an even worse fate if he doesn't do so.

But assume that in fact he isn't capable of stopping the violence. In that case, why negotiate with him? What is the point in signing a treaty with Arafat if Arafat cannot actually deliver what Israel would expect, i.e. a cessation of hostilities?

The problem is that too many people in too many governments still think that any peace process has to include Arafat as one of the partners in the process. But all Arafat can do is make demands; he cannot deliver anything in return. Israel cannot be expected to make concessions if it doesn't get anything in return, or if it gets promises which are not kept. As long as Arafat is required to be part of the peace process, the peace process will fail. But most of the Arab nations, and most of the nations in Europe, and even most of the Palestinians still think he must be involved.

Therefore he has to be removed. And that is what is going on now; that is in fact the "next step". He's surrounded; he's being placed under intolerable pressure by the US and by Israel; his gestures (his oh-so-wonderful meaningless gestures) are being politely accepted and then ignored; and he is being told, in so many words, that only a cessation of the violence will change the situation and that absolutely nothing else will be considered adequate.

And, as Fred points out, he still either can't or won't do anything about it.

If in fact Arafat cannot stop the attacks or won't do so even in the face of intolerable pressure, then what has to happen now is to discredit him, or kill him, or to manipulate events so that his own people take him out.

Once he's gone, then after the anger and recriminations die down, it will be possible to start looking for someone to represent the Palestinians who is actually capable of negotiating in good faith, and who is willing to do what it takes to the Palestinians to make good on his promises. That means to really crack down on the militants, and it means telling the Palestinians that they have to forget about the right of return.