Stardate 20020627.0744

(Captain's log): Sometimes what's interesting in the news isn't so much what is there, as what is missing. I just noticed something that was conspicuous by its absence.

Israel has moved its military forces back into the West Bank. It has occupied all the major cities there except Jericho, and a major Palestinian military compound in Hebron is besieged and under attack. Sharon has also pretty much promised that the IDF is going into Gaza this time, to clean out Hamas (as much as possible).

Palestinian rhetoric about this is getting more and more feeble:

Palestinian officials maintain the Israeli occupation of their cities, under which Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat once again is confined to his Ramallah headquarters, is making it impossible to implement the reforms which President Bush has demanded of them, to democratize the Palestinian Authority and stamp out corruption.

"There must be a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territories, so that we can have our fair and democratic elections without any obstacles, checkpoints or tanks," said Arafat aide Nabil Abu Rdeneh.

Yeah, right. Whatever. As if Arafat has any intention of actually reforming anything, or as if anyone else cares.

And that is what is missing: where's the international outrage against "Israeli aggression"? Where are the demands for immediate withdrawal and resumption of negotiations? Where's the condemnation? Where's the rhetoric about how Israeli military action damages the "peace process"? MIA. I haven't seen it happening at anything like the kind of level as was evident during the operation in March.

I suspect that Monday's speech by Bush is part of the reason why. The true subtext of that speech, that Bush thinks negotiating with the Palestinians is a waste of time, appears to have gotten through. Whether the usual suspects (who think negotiations can solve all problems) have changed their minds in this case or not, Bush's outright refusal to deal with Arafat and the PA as they currently exist seems to have made it evident to everyone that for the near future there will be no fruitful negotiations.

Bush's speech also made clear that he only expected Israeli military disengagement after the Palestinians had reformed and had given up making attacks against Israel. And I think that's the reason why there haven't been any calls from Europe elsewhere for Israeli withdrawal. What this indicates to me is a tacit understanding that the US is the only outside nation who ever really had any influence over the course of events. Everyone else's announcements (such as for withdrawal in March) were intended primarily to pressure Washington to go along and apply pressure to the Israeli government, and now Bush says he won't do it any longer.

Monday's speech was unilateralism at its finest. Bush consulted with no allies before preparing his position, and what he said seems to have totally blindsided world leaders. (Judging from the stunned silence which greeted it, as prepared responses were ripped up and quick rethinking took place.)

And early signs are that it did indeed change everyone's ideas about what is and is not possible in the region, because the reality is that no diplomatic effort there can succeed without American participation and everyone knows it.