Stardate 20020215.1202

(Captain's log): Part III of my armchair analysis of the upcoming war in Iraq.

Part I: Iranian intervention
Part II: The problem of air supremacy and general Iraqi tactics
Part III: Axis of attack
Part IV: Development of the battlefield
Part V: Why not like in Afghanistan?

This analyzes potential axes of attack. There are seven which are possible, but I think that four are very unlikely. Two can be dispensed with immediately: Iran and Syria will not be letting us stage from their territory.

The long shot axis of attack is from Jordan. I consider this very low probability but not impossible. Our forces would land in Israel. The most likely major port to use would be Haifa. Forces would then move across Israel to the Jordanian border, avoiding the West Bank area, and then across Jordan to the Iraqi border in the desert where they would build up. The supply line is about 500 kilometers, but it might be possible to contract with Israeli trucking companies for some of the movement of supplies.

By far the most important and heaviest item to be moved would be water. That surprises many people. In 1990, every man was ordered to drink at least 6 quarts of water every day, and they could have more if they wanted. This was necessary to prevent heat casualties, a substantial problem in that part of the world (and this in the middle of the winter). If you figure a hypothetical ground force of 100,000 men, that means that they are consuming about 600 tons of water a day just to drink. Water is also used for other things, and to be safe you better figure on twice to three times that much, plus you better build up reserves. No other supply is more critical for keeping your force going; if your water supply is cut off, your army will stop in two days and will begin to die in a week. Native sources of water are rare in that part of the world, and you can assume that retreating forces will destroy any wells. You can't rely on capturing any water until you reach one of the major rivers. An attack from Jordan will therefore be completely dependent on a trucked water supply from Israel until it reaches the Euphrates river. (Of course, the Corps of Engineers will have done analysis of the geology of the area from satellite photos and may be able to drill new wells, but you can't rely on that.)

I don't consider this at all likely; the political problems are major. The real question would be whether Jordan would consent to what amounts to a temporary alliance with Israel; it's possible but unlikely. The secondary problem would be keeping supply lines safe against irregular attacks. Even if the government of Jordan consented, there are militant groups in that part of the world who would love to interfere. Israel would provide security within its borders but in Jordan there would be predation on truck convoys.

Staging from Saudi Arabia is somewhat more likely but still low probability. The Saudis are not at all eager to be involved in this, and have been hinting that they'd like to have such troops as we currently have in Saudi Arabia withdrawn.

That said, from a logistical standpoint this is better in most ways. The supply line would be just about as long (if you use the port at Ad Dammam in the Gulf) but movement of supplies would be through uninhabited areas and would be easier to guard, and there is no substantial local insurgency to worry about. The Saudis would have to provide the water, as they did in 1990. That is a non-trivial problem; water from Israel would come from natural sources, but in that part of Saudi Arabia it's produced in desalinization plants. It might actually be necessary to bring water in with tankers.

Moving on up the scale of probability you have an attack which stages in Kuwait. I figure this at about 50% probability. The Kuwaitis owe us big time and we could call in the favor. The government of Kuwait also bears no love for Iraq. Security problems would be minimal; there are major port facilities available and a decent road net for getting supplies to the Iraqi border, which is close by. The border area is long enough so that it can't be fiercely defended by Iraq without concentrating a substantial part of their force. We'd love them to do that because it would leave them vulnerable to air attack, but I don't expect it.

This is the best place available to stage an attack; it's mainly a political problem to convince the Kuwaitis to permit it. The big problem, yet again, is water. Initially it would have to come from Kuwait until a secure water supply in Iraq had been captured (see below).

Moving up the probability scale again, we have Turkey. Turkey is an ally; it is a member of NATO. The government of Turkey has been sending mixed signals about the whole idea of a war against Iraq; some there are enthusiastic about the idea and some there dread it. From a Turkish standpoint it's a mixed blessing. The majority of Turkey's petroleum supply comes from Iraq, and that would be cut off for the duration of Turkey's involvement in the war. In addition, Turkey is seriously concerned with the possibility of the formation of a Kurdish nation in what is now the northern part of Iraq, because once that exists it would want Kurdish areas in Syria, Iran and Turkey to join it. Turkey has been fighting against a Kurdish insurgency in that area for a long time now and it doesn't want that to get worse. There's als