Stardate 20040316.1222

(On Screen): The stampede begins.

Honduras, following the lead of Spain, will withdraw its 370 troops from a Spanish-led humanitarian and peacekeeping brigade in Iraq by the end of June, Defense Secretary Federico Breve said Tuesday.

It appears we're facing the political equivalent of a rout. Now it's only a question of how far it goes and how many other nations lose heart and quit. In addition to having contributed 1300 troops of its own, Spain led about another thousand troops contributed by nations like Honduras and El Salvador. It won't be very surprising if they all give up now, too. The real question will be whether it spreads beyond the Spanish-speaking nations involved in the coalition.

The most important nations are the UK, Poland, and Australia, and so far they all seem to be remaining strong. But it's a hell of a note when you see a news article with the headline, "Most U.S. Allies to Remain in Iraq". That really should be a "dog bites man" story.

Not, mind, that there's going to be any benefit for those who break and run. The Europeans appear to have learned nothing from the Bali attack, and the consequences to Indonesia of its previous low-key policy regarding Islamic extremists.

No European nation has gone further in trying to suck up to the Islamists than France, but it has now received a threat:

France's firm stand against the Iraq war was originally thought to have won it support in the Muslim world, but this evaporated when Paris banned Muslims from wearing headscarves in schools. Summarizing the letter, Esperandieu said: "They're basically saying 'you thought you were safe because of your stand on Iraq, but France is no longer safe at all since February 10."

Nations which are weak or craven increase their chances of being targeted when they appease the Islamists. The Islamists don't seem to be seriously targeting the US any longer because they know that we'll fight back. After 9/11 and after months of sustained operations against Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq, it's now clear that the US won't retreat because of such attacks. Instead, we respond violently to them, causing huge casualties to the attackers, in men lost and organizations obliterated and even nations captured.

They'd rather target nations they think will surrender and beg for mercy. It's far more cost effective. Nations who demonstrate that they do not have the resolve to fight are more inviting targets. (And after the events of the last 30 months, the Islamists are badly in need of some victories, to maintain the flow of recruits and money.)

I don't see Honduras being the target of Islamist aggression any time soon, mostly because there isn't anything there that the Islamists want. But France may now be in the cross-hairs. France's opposition to the invasion of Iraq and its steadfast support for the Palestinians don't seem to have given it any immunity. On the contrary, if this is represents more than just an empty threat, it will turn out that France is being targeted because its leaders showed that they were willing to do whatever it took to appease the Islamists.

Al Maviva writes:

In case you never studied the psychology of bullies - which would be odd considering you call all your opponents fascists, so either you or they actually are bullies - in case you never studied them, they are weak and they only seem strong because they prey on weakness.

Hence, it's bad policy to advertise your weakness widely and publicly, especially right after a bully pops you a good one. The bully may take that as notice that you are ripe for attack; and that you are in fact inviting him to use your face as a chair.

The proper response to a bully, in case you weren't aware, involves scorched earth. I learned this in grade school. When the bully hits you, fight back. Knock a tooth out, if you can. Kick him in the Giloolies. Jump him and sucker punch him if you have to. Scare up a fungo bat, or a C- battery in a sock. Whatever it takes.

The Islamists are, in their own way, making rational cost-benefit decisions. Attacking infidels is a good thing in any case, but its even better to attack infidels who are likely to capitulate than to attack those who fight back.

There is another consequence for those who break and run. When nations join a military alliance, and betray their allies by quitting before the operation concludes, they will never be trusted by those former allies again. Irrespective of how the Islamists may respond to this, America won't forget.

Update: Don Quixote comments.

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