Stardate 20030424.1644

(On Screen): I was wrong that the US would back out of talks in Beijing with North Korea. But I also was wrong in how I interpreted the Chinese comments about not being involved in the talks.

It's reported that what's been happening is that have been three-way sessions, as well as sessions where the Chinese have been alternately meeting with the US and with NK. NK and the US have not directly met in bilateral talks, and we're unlikely to agree to any such discussions. So for all of China's claims ahead of time of not being a participant and not being a mediator, as a practical matter they are both and pretty much can't avoid that as long as we refuse any bilateral meeting with NK.

One reason we won't agree to any such meeting is that NK continues its unreasonable bellicosity and ravingly lunatic demands and threats, clearly in hopes of trying to force major concessions from us. The Bush administration continues to remain strong and somewhat detached, but the latest threat from NK is certainly chilling:

North Korea's lead official at nuclear weapons talks in China told a U.S. envoy that his country has nuclear weapons and may test, export or use them depending on U.S. actions, a senior American official said Thursday.

The comment was made by North Korean delegate Ri Gun to Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly during a social gathering Wednesday following formal discussions on the North's nuclear weapons program, said the senior U.S. official, speaking only on condition of anonymity.

I think this is going to increase the pressure, but it's not clear it's pressure on us. What I think this will do is to force the Chinese to act, especially if we refuse to react. If these talks break down rapidly without accomplishing anything (which I still think is very likely) then it leaves China with an unsolved problem, getting worse by the minute.

China doesn't want to see another war on the Korean peninsula, especially if nukes are used in it. China really doesn't want the US to put nuclear weapons into South Korea, or into Japan, or to give such weapons to either government. And China would just as soon not itself end up at war with North Korea, especially if NK has nukes.

Ultimately the Chinese are the only ones truly capable of forcing North Korea to change. The only way we can defuse the situation is to buy NK off, but we tried that in 1994 and it was ultimately a failure.

It's not clear that their relationship is correctly described as "friendly", but China has certainly given NK much more support than nearly anyone else in recent years, especially since we stopped shipping heating oil to NK last year. China is now NK's only significant source of fuel, and provides large amounts of other kinds of aid. They really don't want the problem but they're pretty much stuck with it, for reasons of geography and history. The real question will be how long the Chinese spend in futile attempts to give the problem to us, before they finally swallow hard and begin to work directly on it.

We better hope it doesn't take long. If NK actually does have nukes and actually does make concrete efforts to try to export them to anyone with cash, then it's going to be necessary to impose a full naval blockade to stop all NK exports. And the chance of war in the region will rise dramatically.

Update: It's now being widely reported that the talks are at an end. Nothing important was accomplished; there wasn't even the traditional attempt by the diplomats to find some way of claiming that the negotiations were successful.