Stardate 20030402.1620

(On Screen): German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer's in the news again. This time the headline reads, "Germany Now Backs Regime Change in Iraq". But that isn't really quite what he said.

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said Wednesday he hoped Saddam Hussein's government would collapse quickly, marking a stark turnaround from Germany's previous opposition to regime change as a goal of the U.S.-led war.

"We hope the regime will collapse as soon as possible and we'll have no further loss of life civilians or soldiers," Fischer said before a meeting with his British counterpart, Jack Straw, at a hotel in Berlin's Grunewald suburb.

Here's what he's thinking. It's clear now that there's not the faintest trace of hope left that international pressure can convince Bush to give up and withdraw from the war any time soon. He's demonstrated yet again the fact that when he truly makes a decision, he sticks with it.

Moreover, it's clear now that there is not going to be any disaster militarily for the US of a sufficient degree and kind in the immediate future which will be enough to sway American public opinion about the war enough to force Bush to withdraw.

And America's voters seem just as impervious to the frantic predictions of doom coming out of Europe as Bush is, and have maintained a very solid majority supporting the war.

And the much-to-be-hoped for American bloody-nose at Baghdad also looks increasingly unlikely. There were hopes that the US had moved too far too fast and that its supply lines were insecure, and that the forces near Baghdad might be forced to pull back because of that. And there was also the secret hope that Iraq's "elite" Republican Guard divisions would turn out to be much tougher than the previous regular Iraqi Army divisions which seemed to present little resistance, and that the assault on the defenses of Baghdad would turn into a bloody stalemate which would rock the Americans back on their heels and force them to give up. Unfortunately, a few days were taken by the US forces to let the front line units rest, and perform essential maintenance on their equipment, and the supplies have been flowing nicely and they're ready to move again. And in the mean time, US air power has been hammering the Republican Guard. Now 3rd Division and 1st MEF are on the move again, and the Republican Guard divisions don't seem to be presenting any more resistance than the previous Iraqi units. Indeed, the new advance through the positions held by the Republican Guard are being characterized in some news reports as the "swiftest advance of the war".

Thus the war's going to continue; the US isn't going to break off and run soon (the next week or two). Attempts to portray the situation as an American disaster, so as to shake American confidence, are impossible as long as things keep going as well as they have.

There are still predictions of bloody and slow street fighting in Baghdad proper when the time comes, but even if the US does end up quagmired there, it will take too long for Germany. (And indications from other street fighting in Iraq suggest that it won't be as bad as some still hope.)

Maybe the US won't win. Maybe there's still a disaster looming. Maybe Americans will lose heart and we'll pull out. But if that happens, it will take months. Germany doesn't have that long.

Germany's economy is in danger. It's already in bad shape, with almost no growth and high unemployment and the government running unacceptably high deficits, and if the war goes on for very long, its effects on international trade, oil prices, and alienation of British and American consumers could end up making Germany's economy start to crumble. And they have no margin for error.

It's virtually impossible for a company in Germany to lay off workers. But if companies go out of business, then their workers become unemployed anyway. And when that happens, it means the company stops paying taxes, and the employees start drawing generous government unemployment benefits. Rising government expenditures at the same time as falling tax revenues could place further strain on the economy, resulting in even more companies going under. The possibility exists of something of a chain reaction, even if Germany doesn't end up getting hit with EU fines for running too high a deficit.

The shorter the war, the less risk. It's really that simple.

Since all efforts by the government of Germany to prevent the US from going to war failed, and since it's now evident that all efforts by the government of Germany to convince the Americans to give up and withdraw are failures, and since events don't seem to be cooperating with the attempt to disillusion America's voters, then the only way that the war can end soon is for Saddam to lose quickly.

Despite the headline, I don't think the German government favors deposing Saddam, even today. It's in favor of the war being over as soon as possible no matter how it comes out. But now the only way it can end soon is if Saddam is deposed. That's what Fi