Stardate 20030110.1615

(On Screen): North Korea continues to pour on the pressure in hopes of synthesizing a crisis. The latest move is a formal announcement that they are withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which is an international treaty whereby signatories not among the five acknowledge "nuclear powers" promise not to develop nuclear weapons.

Given that they probably do have one or two nukes already and have had at various times active programs to develop more, it's hard to see what difference their withdrawal actually makes. But North Korea's hand is notably absent in reasonable cards to play, so they have to use what they have, and this one at least has symbolic value capable of scaring the pants off certain people.

But they're also beginning to hint as to what they really want.

Shortly after the announcement, a North Korean envoy to China, cited by Seoul's YTN television, said North Korea would be willing to reverse its decision if the United States and its allies resumed shipments of fuel oil.

Let's review: we made an agreement with North Korea in 1994 to give them immense amounts of refined petroleum for free if they would promise to not develop nuclear weapons. Between 1994 and October 2002, we shipped the oil regularly as promised, and in October of 2002 a member of the North Korean government stated that they'd developed nuclear weapons anyway. The US and South Korea and Japan (primary participants in the 1994 agreement) decided to stop shipping in that oil, since North Korea hadn't fulfilled its part of the bargain.

The new deal that North Korea wants to make is to return to the situation in September of 2002. That means that North Korea is a member of the NPT but ignores all obligations under that treaty, and we give them the oil anyway, on our nickel.

It should be made clear that there is no blockade. North Korea is perfectly capable of buying the oil they need on the open market, except for the fact that they don't have the money necessary because they're dirt-poor (because their economy is in complete collapse, because the government is incompetent). What they're asking for is that we buy them off, and resume substantial amounts of aid to them without any important concessions by them at all except to tone down the ruckus. Such a deal!

There's no hurry here. Let's be calm and slow and deliberative, OK? Let's spend LOOOTS of time in negotiations and consultation. Let's negotiate and dither and consider carefully what we should do. (Let's be European.)

North Korea doesn't have time. They're trying to manufacture urgency for us because they're in an urgent situation themselves. If we have a bit of patience, they will get more desperate, and if it becomes clear to them that we're not falling for it, they will change tactics, almost certainly in ways which will be better for us. (Their threats notwithstanding, I do not think that they'll actually go to war over this even if their situation becomes dire.) I think they may be looking at disaster in no more than weeks. Their vehemence and stridency betrays someone who needs a quick solution. (That's one of the critical differences between North Korea and Iraq: time is on Iraq's side.)

Part of what we're reaping here comes from the fact that in the past this kind of grandstanding by North Korea did indeed result in us buying them off. (That's what the 1994 agreement amounted to.) It's important for us to break with that precedent, not only in regards to our specific situation with North Korea, but also for more global reasons.

Many other nations in the world who are in a position to manufacture crises are watching this closely. If we cave in, it's going to happen again.