Stardate 20021010.1853

(On Screen): I am becoming more confident. The House has passed an authorization for war against Iraq which does not contain any requirement for approval by either the UN or by "allies". All reports are that the Senate is expected to pass the same authorization, probably later this evening but possibly in the next couple of days.

Passage in the Senate is now pretty much a foregone conclusion. Attempts to amend the authorization or to use procedural processes to delay it were voted down 75-25, and Daschle is not trying to prevent it from passing. I suspect that the Democrats finally realized that the sooner they pass the bill, the more chance they have before the election to going back to trying to talk about the economy. Dragging out deliberation would keep the war on the political front burner, which would be an advantage for the Republicans, and make them look pro-Saddam, which would be an advantage for the Republicans.

But I don't think it's entirely sordid, and I am very relieved to see so many of the Democrats in both houses recognize the importance of this to the US. And ultimately I think that is their real motivation; they know this must be done, and they know that ultimately it transcends party politics.

We will now observe one of those marvelous paradoxes which keep appearing in politics. Since Bush won't require UN authorization for war, he'll get it. If the bill which passed Congress had included a requirement for UN authorization, it would not have happened. Isn't political logic grand?

If the Senate does approve the House language for the bill as now seems likely, then it will become evident to the members of the Security Council that the train is going to leave the station, and they can be on it or under it. With an authorization for war not requiring UN approval in his pocket, Bush will be far less subject to attempts at extortion by the veto powers, and they will recognize that refusing authorization will only harm the UN without any commensurate benefit. UN approval will still be useful, and Bush will be willing to pay a small price to get it, but he doesn't require it and he is in a good position to negotiate.

But if Congress had required Bush to obtain UN approval, then the veto powers in the Security Council would have had him up a tree, and would have attempted to extort huge concessions in exchange for their votes.

With a requirement for UN approval, their votes would have had actual significance. Without such a requirement, their votes will largely be symbolic.

I think that this reality is not lost on the members of the House and the Senate. For them to shackle the President with such a requirement would ultimately have been counterproductive.

There are certain requirements and limitations in the bill which just passed the House, but I do not think Bush will consider them onerous. Most of them come down to a requirement that the administration keep Congress informed of the process towards war, the decision to begin it, and how it's going once that happens. A requirement for regular reports is completely reasonable; Congress is entitled to know what's going on.

On the other hand, the bill is crafted in such a way as to not give Saddam any loopholes he can slip through and bollix up the works. There's a long section at the beginning of the bill which recaps all the important events leading up to the present (including making an argument that US operations are already authorized by prior UNSC resolutions, an interesting point). Then it gets to the meat:

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This joint resolution may be cited as the 'Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against Iraq'.

SEC. 2. SUPPORT FOR UNITED STATES DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

The Congress of the United States supports the efforts by the President to –

(1) strictly enforce through the United Nations Security Council all relevant Security Council resolutions applicable to Iraq and encourages him in those efforts; and

(2) obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay, evasion and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies with all relevant Security Council resolutions.

SEC. 3. AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES.

(a) AUTHORIZATION- The President is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to –

(1) defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and

(2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq.

(b) PRESIDENTIAL DETERMINATION- In connection with the exercise of the authority granted in subsection (a) to use force the President shall, prior to such exercise or as soon thereafter as may be feasible, but no later than 48 hours after exercising such authority, make available to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate his determination that –

(1) reliance by the United States on further diplomatic or other peaceful means alone either (A) will not adequately protect the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq or (B) is not likely to lead to enforcement of all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq; and

(2) acting pursuant to this resolution is consisten