Stardate 20020927.1806

(On Screen): So the backroom dealing is over, and the US has introduced its draft resolution in the UN Security Council. It abstained on a resolution last Monday which condemned Israel so as to be seen as a "team player", at least for the moment, and now we get to see what happens.

The resolution sets a 7 day deadline for Baghdad to accept full and unconditional inspections, which means no horseshit about "respecting Iraqi sovereignty". The inspectors would go where they want, when they want, without warning, and would demand full access to anything, and Iraq would promise not to interfere.

Within 30 days, Iraq would be expected to make a full accounting of all prohibited materials remaining in its possession.

There would be no quid-pro-quo, no associated schedule for lifting sanctions. Iraq gives everything, the world gives nothing, and Iraq gets a reward only if it fully cooperates.

And if it doesn't, then it would be attacked, and the resolution would authorize the US to do so.

That's the resolution; now to see what happens. First, we don't really know what Russia or China will do, but Chirac doesn't like it. In particular, Chirac doesn't want the authorization for war included in this. He wants a bill which is more or less like this except that if Iraq doesn't comply then the UNSC would meet again and decide what to do. This amounts to making a demand without backing it with anything except a really fierce Gallic scowl.

During debate in the UNSC, France will try to get the actual threat/authorization for war removed and the US won't permit it, and eventually the UNSC will vote on a measure whose demands and timetable may have been modified slightly, but which will include an authorization for war.

So, here are the ways it can pan out.

First, France (or, possibly, Russia or China) might veto the measure. In that case, Bush goes to the American people and says, "See? I tried to work with the UN, but they've got their heads up their asses and don't care about danger to us or attacks against us." Having the French be the bad guys can only help this, but it would be much the same if it turns out to be either Russia or China.

Opinion polls in the US will instantly turn extremely negative towards the UN, and any attempts by the Democrats in the Senate to include a requirement for UN approval will be dropped. Bush will get his authorization for war from Congress, and we'll attack anyway. Formal operations commence before the new year.

Second, Chirac may make some sort of face saving gesture, a speech about how war is the last resort and how France still opposes it and hopes that Iraq will do what it needs to in order to avoid that eventuality but that though France doesn't want war, for the good of the world and the continued relevance of the UN it will go along blah blah blah, and not veto the measure. (By the same token, Russia and China either consent or abstain.)

In that case, Iraq will, yet again, dither and delay. If they refuse the measure, we begin military operations before the new year. If they accept, some of the inspectors will be Americans, and they'll go with checklists of places that American intelligence says have a good chance of being loaded with goodies. They will try to push the limits as soon as possible; one group will immediately start inspecting "Presidential Palaces" and another will start checking other locations which were previously out of bounds. Eventually one of them will get close to something that Iraq is trying to hide, and one way or another it will hit the fan. They're permitted in and find it, or there is resistance, or perhaps even a firefight.

If they resist, we attack. If they don't and things are found that they claimed they didn't have, the diplomatic situation for Iraq goes into the toilet, but there's no chance that they will actually give in and let such things (e.g. refined U-235, stockpiles of nerve gas, uranium enrichment equipment) actually be found. They will resist, and we'll attack.

Actually, I don't think that anything that happens in the UN matters any more. Bush is bringing things to a head there in order to put pressure on Congress. Tom Daschle is going to hate it, but he knows as well as anyone that Congress has to give Bush the authorization that Bush wants, and that it can't actually include any requirement for UN permission. Once Bush has that, he'll use it no matter what happens in the UN.

The worst case is that Iraq "consents" and tries to drag the process out with negotiations about "technical details" and yet more attempts to get a schedule for lifting of the sanctions, as well as doing its best to slow the process of getting inspectors in Iraq. It will use every low level nasty thing it can to impede them. If that's what happens, then with Congressional authorization in hand, Bush will say that Iraq isn't actually cooperating, it's had its last chance, and we will attack anyway.

All roads lead to the same conclusion: We will be at war before the end of the year.