Stardate 20020917.1025

(On Screen): Andrew writes:

You say that a German refusal to let the US use bases in Germany would be the end of NATO. While I agree that it should be the end of NATO, since it is a MUTUAL defence treaty, but is being treated by Germany as a promise from America to protect it, without any responsibility to reciprocate. But I hadn't actually thought that America would find the reasoning, the justified disgust, and the way of presenting their resulting decision to withdraw from NATO, that would be required for this to happen.

American withdrawal, most will realise, makes it pointless to be a member, since even Britain is ill-disposed to defend the whole of Europe on its own. But how will the administration present this news? Germany is in breach of treaty? Will the US withdraw its troops from Germany, who are, in effect, defending Germany, as well as defending America's interests, and defending all NATO countries. Wouldn't this make it more likely that Germany could or would need to become militarily powerful in its own right, leading to, at least, fears, of renewed pan-European German domination?

When the time comes, NATO will end with a whimper and not with a bang. There won't be any grand pronouncement leading to international condemnations and a diplomatic crisis. My most likely scenario for the end of NATO is that when we end up fighting in the Middle East (and we're going to) the US will end up needing its assets which are currently parked in Germany and will pull them out "temporarily", only when the war is over they won't return. You'll see air units in particular come out really early, but later you're going to see the Army pull out, too. If we end up needing air units from Germany and the Germany government refuses to let them fly combat missions from there, they'll publicly leave immediately to rebase somewhere more cooperative, but in that case it's going to be Germany's crisis and not ours.

A lot of our forces in Germany pulled out in 1990, but they returned. Our armored division in Germany fought in the Gulf, but returned to Germany afterward. What would happen this time is that they'd stay in Iraq as occupation troops and to help provide muscle for potential follow-on wars (e.g. Saudi Arabia). Which is to say that they wouldn't go back to Germany afterward.

It would all be very quiet and subtle and suddenly one day everyone will wake up and realize that the US is no longer making a significant military commitment to Europe, and has nothing available to move there in a crisis.

There are certain symbolic events which might happen long after a de facto pullout which might spark condemnation. If the headquarters units for First Infantry or First Armored or USAFE pull out of Germany, someone's going to make a speech asking why.

Germany will be affected by a pullout, immediately, when it happens. It's going to affect German employment. A big American base in your area is a major source of local business, which is why everyone always bitches and moans when they hear plans for such a base being closed. If we end up pulling a couple hundred thousand troops out of Germany, the German economy will notice it. It may sound stupid, but one of the things they'll miss is spending in restaurants and bars (and brothels!) by American servicemen on leave. A quarter of a million soldiers spend a lot of money every month on bier and bratwurst and babes.

A return of German militarism is certainly the big fear in Europe, but I think it unlikely. I think the Prussian martial tradition is just as dead as the Samurai. Fifty years has rendered a permanent cultural change. That's especially true because Germany now is dominated by non-Prussians. (Prussia covered much the same territory as what we came to think of as East Germany during the Cold War. Germany's capitol is back in Berlin, but that doesn't mean the Prussians have taken over.)

On the other hand, Europe would become a military backwater, no longer relevant at all. Aside from the obvious fact that this would continue the estrangement between the US and Europe, the primary political effect of this would be on the Eastern European nations who are eager to join NATO in hopes of protecting themselves against reconquest by Russia. When they realize that NATO is a paper tiger, they will start making bilateral agreements with the US instead which would in turn weaken the diplomatic power of the EU.