Stardate 20020516.1956

(On Screen): Israel has sent an armored column back into Jenin. This has a number of salutary effects.

First, it's a spit in the eye of world diplomacy. It, and other Israeli military operations, send to the world (i.e. to Europe) the message that Israel isn't going to play the victim anymore, isn't going to passively accept being predated on by the Palestinians, and is going to do whatever it takes to stop it. And Israel isn't going to be forced back on the defensive by diplomatic pressure.

Second, it's a message to the Palestinians themselves. We are beginning to see real unrest among the Palestinians aimed at their leaders rather than at Israel. Part of the reason was that there was a feeling during the Intifada of invulnerability, of hurting Israel more than the Palestinians were being hurt. There was a feeling of success, of progress, of sacrifice in a good cause. It's true that the Palestinians lost more dead, but they felt they were willing to do so and that their own losses were acceptable, while it was thought that the Israelis would not think their own losses were acceptable. In fact, that was true, and given that Israel's actions during most of that time tended to be limited and reactive, there was also a feeling among the Palestinians of being in control of the situation. They were acting, Israel was reacting. Israel had much more strength but no will or ability to use it, and so Israel's military superiority could be ignored.

There was also a feeling that soon Israel would reach the breaking point and would give in to stop the losses. That was not true. Israel did reach the breaking point, but the Israeli government didn't decide to give in.

That illusion was all shattered by the recent Israeli operation in the West Bank. Israel didn't give in; it fought back. Suddenly the war came home big time to the Palestinians; thousands of their activists were killed or taken away as prisoners. Their head of government was shamed and had to sell out in order to save himself. Suddenly it all went really bad; suddenly the cost to the Palestinians became huge.

And the message of today's operation is that it's going to stay huge as long as the Palestinians don't change their policy, stop the bombing, and reform their government. There will be no place in the West Bank which is safe. The IDF can show up anywhere, any time, and won't be reacting to direct bombings anymore. Israel's military superiority can no longer be ignored; Israel is using it and will continue to use it.

It is, in a sense, terrorism (with a small "t"). Its purpose is to scare the hell out of the Palestinians, to keep them moving in the direction Israel wants, to send a message that the Palestinians can't relax. The storm isn't over. Lightning will continue to strike, and it could fall anywhere.

These operations will continue despite world pressure until Israel thinks that they are no longer needed, and the only way that the Palestinians can prevent that is by giving Israel what it wants and removing the threat. The main operation demonstrated conclusively that the Palestinians do not have the ability to prevent such IDF operations by direct military might or by inflicting unacceptable losses on the IDF, and this new operation also proves that there's no diplomatic approach. No amount of pressure by outside nations will stop it. No amount of publicity, no amount of claims of victimhood, nothing like that: Israel doesn't care any more about world opinion.

And the Palestinians don't seem to be able to strike Israel with suicide bombers anymore, either. There's only been one such attack in nearly two months, and it clearly didn't remove Israel's willingness to persist. The Palestinians are now on the defensive and they are helpless. No-one and nothing can save them.

Only reform, and a cessation of planning of attacks (let alone carrying them out) will stop it. And everyone even remotely close to any place where such planning takes place will pay a terrible price.

That is the message, and it seems to be getting through. Israel is through asking. Now it's ordering. It's through listening to insincere words; now it will only be satisfied by concrete action.