Stardate 20020216.1822

(On Screen via long range sensors): It's yet another mainstream press recap of the increasingly strident war of words between Washington and various capitols in Europe. But it got me to thinking (always a dangerous thing):

What bothers the Europeans the most is not entirely clear: Mr. Bush's goals, his missionary zeal, or the thought that Washington sees its role as wiping out bad governments and the allies' role as one of cleaning up with aid and peacekeepers.

What occurred to me upon reading that was that it isn't really any of those things. It occurred to me that the real root cause was a growing realization in European capitols that the major nations there are now second class militarily, economically and diplomatically. It's difficult to resist the urge to use a sexual metaphor: the European nations are old men who can't get it up any longer, bitching about the virile young guy on the other side of the Atlantic who seems to be getting all the girls; and they're telling him that he's a sinner and should slow down and act more like they do. (Of course, if they could do it, they'd all be acting like he is.)

You got your United States and it's out there sailing all over the world with its navy, creating coalitions and fighting and winning wars. Meanwhile, the Europeans have a diplomatic crisis of their own, and so far the US is staying out of it. Mugabe in Zimbabwe is getting set to steal an election in March, and the Europeans are trying to guarantee an honest election (in hopes that he'll lose). So the Europeans demanded that they be permitted to send a group of observers, and now Mugabe's government is revoking the visa of Pierre Schori, the leader of the group. The European nations say that if he's forced to come home, they'll respond forcefully.

With sanctions. (Of course. Europe's favorite weapon of foreign policy.) Targeted sanctions, no less. Nothing that could harm the already miserable people of Zimbabwe, but things intended to inconvenience Mugabe's inner circle, to send them a message: a ban on travel to Europe for the inner circle, a freeze on European bank accounts identified as belonging to them, and a ban on arms sales. The BBC provides a summary asking and answering a number of questions: When would sanctions come into force? What impact are they likely to have? and so on.

What they don't ask is how likely this is to actually accomplish anything. The answer is, "not very". The evidence is clear that Mugabe doesn't give a tinker's damn what anyone else thinks; his sole goal in life is to be in power, and he doesn't care what he has to do to stay in power, or what kind of catastrophe it brings on his nation. His actions so far have already destroyed the nation's economy and ruined its agricultural base, and a nation which used to export food now is reliant on imports to avoid starvation. It's extremely difficult to believe that the European sanctions are going to make a bit of difference to Mugabe. (If they lose their European bank accounts, there's plenty of opportunity for graft to make more and deposit it somewhere more safe.)

The problem is that sanctions are pretty much all Europe is capable of. Politically, economically and militarily they don't have any better weapons than this. Their response is feeble because they are impotent. (One is tempted to use the word "emasculated".)

So Schori will be ejected from Zimbabwe, the Europeans will impose their sanctions, Mugabe will ignore them and will steal the election anyway, and Europe will end up with a diplomatic black eye.

Of course, war isn't sex and that "virile young guy" isn't getting laid; war is ugly and horrible and no fun at all, but sometimes it's necessary. The United States has decided that it has become necessary, while the Europeans are not so sure of that. It's not just that they themselves don't want to fight; they're afraid of the side effects from American military action. The US intends to upset the international apple cart. This threatens "international stability," as the rhetoric goes.

European leaders still harbor the illusion of equality. "We're all partners in this; we'll all contribute and we'll all make decisions together." Only it hasn't turned out that way, and Afghanistan was the wakeup call for Europe to realize that it is now on the sidelines.

After 500 years of dominating the world and being the economic and diplomatic center of everything, Europe is going through a massive ego deflation as it realizes that the center has crossed the ocean. On some level they have known it for a long time, but they always harbored the illusion that it was an alliance that they were part of which was the center of things. Their biggest complaints about "destruction of the coalition" come down to a recognition that if there is no coalition then they can no longer pretend that they matter.

So German Foreign Minister Fischer complains that the US is treating the European nations like "satellites". Actually, we're not. What fries him is what the US really is doing: ignoring the Europeans completely. If they were satellites, we'd have ordered them to use their militaries in a time and place of o